War and Propaganda
War and Propaganda
All you need to know about the world. Making you smarter in 5 minutes
Another week has gone. Another week where all that really matters is the war. In the UN resolution calling for an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a majority of the world’s people abstained (India, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, etc.), we thought we will look at how different stakeholders are looking at it. Lest we make the mistake of thinking only one side of the media is propaganda:
With that, let’s get started
Russia: The Russian justification for this war is essentially based on two reasons
The threat Russia perceives for itself from NATO expansion. We covered this in some detail in our last edition.
“Denazify” and “Demilitarize” the country, which it blames for “genocide” in the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
While Putin is being compared to the second coming of Hitler across the world, he has not been averse to talking to leaders across Europe. He has had lengthy conversations with French President Macron and with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He also met the leaders of Israel and Turkey. But Putin has been unwilling to take a step back in the negotiations and insists Moscow’s demands must be met. He has asserted that Kyiv must cease fighting and fulfill all of Moscow’s demands in order for the Russian invasion of Ukraine to stop. Putin maintains that Russia is doing everything possible to protect civilian lives and is carrying out “surgical strikes” on military establishments. Considering repeated Russian efforts of ceasefire and establishing evacuation corridors for Ukrainian citizens that might well be true. Also, the pace of Russian advance suggests that they have been careful in the invasion.
So what are Russia’s demands? Primarily:
The neutral and non-nuclear status of Ukraine
“Denazification” of certain areas of Ukraine
Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia and of the "sovereignty" of separatist territories in eastern Ukraine.
Putin has so far not been willing to give an inch, if that will continue in the face of mounting sanctions crippling the Russian economy is anybody’s guess. What is Putin’s endgame: Expect him to implement a regime change, demilitarize Ukraine and leave the country or face an insurgency as the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan. Putin will solidify their position in Russia which will bring more former Soviet states under threat. In case Russia loses the war, Putin will be removed with a pro-US Government being installed along with long-continuing Military and economic sanctions to refrain Russia and its leaders from even thinking of attempting this ever again.
US: The U.S. has a tricky relationship with Putin. Especially among the conservatives among whom Putin enjoys a sort of grudging admiration. Donald Trump, in fact, appeared to praise the Russian leader’s advances days before the invasion on February 24, calling the moves “smart” and “savvy”. So far, the U.S. has shown that it will continue with economic sanctions, but that it will not put “boots on the ground” to aid Ukrainian forces against the Russian invasion. Biden made it clear that an active U.S. involvement here would mean a World War, with devastating consequences for the entire world. The U.S. already has a substantial number of troops in Europe, but other than in a scenario where Russia threatens an active NATO member like Poland, the U.S. forces will not engage in an armed conflict with Russian forces. To add to all this is the U.S.’s own track record of military intervention. Their Endgame: Opposite of Russia’s endgame as above.
Ukraine: Well, everyone knows what they want. The war to end and lives to resume. The current political setup also wants a Euro membership and to become a member of NATO. If those aspirations will remain the longer the war continues, time will tell. Meanwhile, Ukrainians continue to flee the country.
India: India has abstained from all the votes cast in the UN, much like China. India has stated its objective is safe passage for all Indian nationals stranded in Ukraine. While the western nations have been putting pressure on India to condemn Russian actions, India has avoided doing so. India has a long history of non-alignment while leaning towards Russia while Pakistan leaned towards the US. More than 60-70% of India’s weapons (including T-90 tanks and Sukhoi fighter jets) are of Russian origin, with India buying S-400 missile defense systems recently amidst the threat of US sanctions. On the other hand, the US is India’s largest trading partner. For India, NATO expansionism is not a problem, neither is Russia being aggressive. Privately Indian diplomats concede that Russian concerns of NATO expansionism were ignored. India is more concerned about China and Pakistan and which way they’ll lean. Expect this neutral stance to continue in the near future.
China: Now this is a toughie. Does anyone know what China wants? China and the Soviet Union were not on friendly terms during most of the Cold war due to various issues that persisted with China leaning more towards the US. Things changed post-breakup of the Soviet Union with Russia and China enjoying close relations, with Putin even visiting Beijing at the start of the Beijing winter Olympics and both heavily criticizing the US including ‘opposing the further expansion of NATO” in what they called a “Cold War era” approach’. China has continued criticizing the US post the invasion with it no secret US and China are not on good terms. Government-owned Chinese media outlets were not too keen on the economic sanctions saying ‘If the US and its allies deprive Russia of its economic security with sanctions, it is not impossible that Russia will strike back’ while also taking potshots at the cancel culture unleashed by the US & Europe. However, expect China to continue its current stance and not support Russia openly in Multilateral forums like the UN, as the Chinese economy is majorly dependent on exports to US and Europe which could face sanctions in such an event. Meanwhile, expect China to continue to support the Russian economy by continuing to buy Oil and Gas and continuing its trade with Russia which has grown manifold since the 2014 sanctions on Russia.
Europe: Everyone’s favorite continent continues to follow America’s lead and put pressure on Russia through sanctions and is also supplying weapons to Ukraine to help it in its fight. Meanwhile, Europe continues to bankroll Russia’s war by buying Oil from Russia. We had highlighted this dependence in our last issue. But, Europe would not be too happy with the war continuing on its land for too long, but why it’s not taking a more active role (while Israel and Turkey take the lead) is anybody’s guess. Look for Europe to invest even more in Clean Energy sources in the near future to reduce its dependence on Russian Gas.
Others:
OPEC+: OPEC stuck to its guns and continued with the moderate increase in production implemented since the abatement of Covid-19. Why wouldn’t it with Oil touching $118 a barrel with analysts warning of $150 crude if the west stops purchase of Russian supplies.
Other OECD countries like Canada, Japan, Australia, etc: See US.
Africa (which everyone ignores): While African nations have, broadly speaking, condemned the invasion of Ukraine, the sentiment in Africa is not the same as in Europe. Kenya e.g. condemned Russia in clear terms but also expressed concerns over “the trend in the last few decades of powerful states, including members of this Security Council, breaching international law with little regard.” Then there are the regimes in countries such as Sudan and Mali who are close allies of Russia and look upon Putin favorably as a leader with a contentious human rights record. Russia has supported some African regimes in their fight against apartheid and colonialism, we don’t expect African nations to suddenly turn their backs on an old friend.
The cricket fraternity lost a giant last week when Shane Warne passed away due to a suspected heart attack. He was 52. Warne, who revolutionized spin bowling and made leg-spin fashionable was one of the greatest cricketers to ever play the game and very likely the greatest bowler. Every time he stepped up to bowl, he made it a spectacle. There is hardly a kid growing up in the 90s who would not have copied his action while casually walking up to bowl leg-spin. Warne had many nicknames, but to his colleagues and opponents alike he was and always will be, The King.
That’s all from us for the week. Please share if you like and let us know how we did